Four games to go and only 2% chance of qualifying for the last eight – that’s what the BKT United Rugby Championship odds predictor is assessing the Ospreys chances of reaching the top eight this season.
Two years ago, they applied the same percentage to Mark Jones’ men with just one game to go, yet they made it. A final round win over Cardiff enabled them to squeeze in on that occasion and a victory at home over the Sharks in Bridgend on Saturday night (18 April – 7.45pm) is much needed to beat the odds again.
Currently 10 points adrift of eighth place it is probably going to take four bonus-point wins to bridge the gap. However difficult that might be, it is certainly the goal.
“We’ve got four games left and we’re going to attack them all and try to finish as strongly as we can. We’ll try to get as many wins as we possibly can to extend our season,” said Ospreys head coach Jones.
The Sharks, currently three points ahead of the Ospreys in 10th, are in a similar position knowing they will have to win all their games to sneak break into the top eight and try to lift themselves off the bottom of the South African Shield table.
“They’re full of Springboks, full of experience, and we’re expecting a team that’s representative of their quality,” said Jones.
“We’re looking forward to the challenge, but we know it’s a big one. We’re going to need to be at our absolute best to get anything out of the game.”
Having been controversially knocked out of the EPCR Challenge Cup by Ulster in Belfast last time out, the battle from here to the end of the season is now only on one front.
“We’ve tried our very best to keep both fronts going all season. We’ve rotated the squad and tried to share the workload with all the travel in the URC,” said Jones.
Wales scrum half Kieran Hardy lines up inside Dan Edwards for his first game since signing a new contract, but Jack Walsh is on the bench. He has yet to accept a new offer and is considering his options, with French clubs chasing his signature.
Jac Morgan leads the Ospreys, while Ross Moriarty returns on the replacements bench after serving his suspension. He is joined by fellow international Harri Deaves on the bench.
Sharks head coach JP Pietersen has given 18-year-old Zekhethelo Siyaya a first start at full-back, while World Cup winning Springbok captain Siya Kolisi will sit out the game at the Brewery Field.
TEAMS
Ospreys: Iestyn Hopkins; Luke Morgan, Evardi Bishoff, Owen Watkin, Dan Kasende; Dan Edwards, Kieran Hardy; Gareth Thomas, Sam Parry, Tom Botha, Huw Sutton, Ryan Smith, James Ratti, Jac Morgan (captain), Martyn Morris
Reps: Emyr Daniel, Garyn Phillips, Ben Warren, Ross Moriarty, Harri Deaves, Reuben Morgan-Williams, Phil Cokanasiga, Jack WalshSharks: Zekhethelo Siyaya; Edwill van der Merwe, Le Roux Malan, Andre Esterhuizen (captain), Ethan Hooker; Jean Smith, Jaden Hendrikse; Phatu Ganyane, Fez Mbatha, Hanro Jacobs, Jason Jenkins, Emile van Heerden, Phepsi Buthelezi, Vincent Tshituka, Manu Tshituka
Reps: Eduan Swart, Ox Nche, Vincent Koch, Corne Rahl, Nick Hatton, Bradley Davids, Siya Masuku, Jurenzo JuliusReferee: Mike Adamson (Scotland)